Информация о публикации

Poleward migration of the destructive effects of tropical cyclones during the 20th century

Altman J., Ukhvatkina O.N., Omelko A.M., Macek M., Plener T., Pejcha V., Cerny T., Petrik P., Srutek M., Song J.-S., Zhmerenetsky A.A., Vozmishcheva A.S., Krestov P.V., Petrenko T.Y., Treydte K., Dolezal J.

В журнале Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS)

Год: 2018 Том: 115(45) Страницы: 11543-11548

Long-term variability in tropical cyclone (TC) activity is of high relevance for the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies; however, our current knowledge is based mostly on short-term records, with strong discrepancies among various datasets. We used tree-ring records of past forest disturbances to show rapid increases in the destructive effects of TCs during the 20th century. Long-term changes in TC activity imply that the recent poleward migration of TCs is not within the range of long-term natural variability and may be associated with climate change. Our findings are important, as affected regions were formerly situated at the edge of areas affected by TCs, and these areas are more sensitive to TC hazards because of a lack of experience-based adaptation strategies.

DOI 10.1073/pnas.1808979115